Charts That Make BS

Charts That MaKe Black Swans

As the Federal Reserve begins what will most likely be a short lived series of rate hikes, the effects of anticipation begin.

For the Fed the greatest challange is containing volatility—unless volatility allows for 13(3)(unusual and exigent circumstances). Inflation is not as problematic as most financial experts—who have rekindled a fondness for the middle class and poor—believe. That’s why the Fed will stick with 50bp hikes and may begin warning of future economic weakness and lower inflation expectations in the coming months. Their slower than expected rate increases will come about due to an economy deteriorating faster than expected.

TREASURY & BOND MARKET

2–year Treasury – Effective Federal Funds Rate
10yr Treasury Monthly Change(percent)
2yr Treasury Monthly Change(percent)
Moodys Baa Corporate Bond Yield

Housing

Home Affordability is the worst since the GFC

commercial banks

Primary Dealer FTD’s: Corporate Securities — Greater FTD’S can indicate illiquidity in O/N lending markets.

Commodities

Each chart is accompanied by its Price Rate of Change to exemplify current volatility.

Lumber Futures
Corn futures
Wheat Futures
Soybean Futures
Brent Crude Futures