After a surprisingly large jump (+3.4% MoM) in January, analysts expected slower growth in preliminary February data but instead it tumbled 1.1% MoM (+0.5% MoM exp). This is the first drop since April and slows the annual gain to +2.3% YoY (which of course will explode next month against March plunge comps).

Source: Bloomberg

These are orders – so are not affected per se by any global supply chain disruptions.

Core capital goods orders, a category that excludes aircraft and military hardware and is seen as a barometer of business investment, dropped 0.8% after an upwardly revised 0.6% gain.

And Capital Goods Shipments non-defense also dropped for the first time since April.

Source: Bloomberg

There could be some weather-related impacts but it appears the global semi-shortage is having an impact as auto production and shipments tumbled in February…

Source: Bloomberg

On the more positive side, orders for commercial aircraft surged more than 103% in February from a month earlier as Boeing reported 82 orders for the month, the second-best in two years.

Of course, as Powell would say, this is all transitory, right?