Categories: Home

Personal Income decreased 7.1% in February, Spending decreased 1.0%

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for January:

Personal income income decreased $1,516.6 billion (7.1 percent) in February according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $1,532.3 billion (8.0 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $149.0 billion (1.0 percent).

Real DPI decreased 8.2 percent in February and Real PCE decreased 1.2 percent; goods decreased 3.3 percent and services decreased 0.1 percent. The PCE price index increased 0.2 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 0.1 percent.
emphasis added

The February PCE price index increased 1.6 percent year-over-year and the February PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.4 percent year-over-year.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through February 2021 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn’t start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE.

Personal income was at expectations,  and the decrease in PCE was slightly below expectations.

Using the two-month method to estimate Q1 PCE growth, PCE was increasing at a 6.3% annual rate in Q1 2021. (using the mid-month method, PCE was  increasing at 3.3%). However, these methods are understating growth in Q1, due to the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. Both income and spending increased sharply in March, from BofA yesterday:

"Total card spending, as measured by BAC aggregated card data, increased 45% 1-yr and 23% 2-yr for the 7-days ending Mar 20.

The strong gain owes to the latest stimulus: total card spending for stimulus recipients is running 40% above the Feb avg."

Chairman - Big Ben Bernanke

Recent Posts

Fed Emergency Bank Bailout Facility Usage Hits New Record High; Money Market Funds See Small Outflow

Fed Emergency Bank Bailout Facility Usage Hits New Record High; Money Market Funds See Small…

1 year ago

US Homeowner Equity Drops For First Time Since 2012

US Homeowner Equity Drops For First Time Since 2012 The housing bull market has peaked…

1 year ago

JPMorgan and Citigroup Are Using the Same Accounting Maneuver as Silicon Valley Bank on Hundreds of Billions of Underwater Debt Securities

JPMorgan and Citigroup Are Using the Same Accounting Maneuver as Silicon Valley Bank on Hundreds…

1 year ago

At Year End, 4,127 U.S. Banks Held $7.7 Trillion in Uninsured Deposits; JPMorgan Chase, BofA, Wells Fargo and Citi Accounted for 43 Percent of That

At Year End, 4,127 U.S. Banks Held $7.7 Trillion in Uninsured Deposits; JPMorgan Chase, BofA,…

1 year ago

The Disturbing Truth About the Home You Think You Own

Do you really own something if someone forces you to make never-ending (and ever-increasing) payments…

2 years ago

Doug Casey On Why The US Is Headed Into Its ‘Fourth Turning’

Doug Casey On Why The US Is Headed Into Its 'Fourth Turning' Authored by Doug…

2 years ago