If one listens to the Fed, or looks at market-implied odds of subzero rates…
… the US will – unlike Europe or Japan – avoid the devastating central bank experiment that is negative interest rates, which not only does not encourage inflation but in fact ensures even greater savings, even less spending…
… even more disinflation and even greater bank losses as yield curves pancake.
Yet is there more than meets the eye here, and behind the optimistic facade of the imminent reflation trade, are the biggest US financial institutions quietly preparing for negative rates?
This is a question that bears asking, after this morning the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) issued a white paper to assist market participants with planning for the potential of a negative interest-rate policy in the US. The paper, titled “U.S. Negative Interest Rates Policy Checklist,” is co-authored by Sifma and Ernst & Young LLP
“While Sifma is not forecasting a U.S. negative interest rates policy, near term, our members do consider the need to prepare for such a possibility,” Sifma’s Charles DeSimone said in a press release accompanying the report. “While the probability is low, the impact would be high.”
And while Sifma – which is the biggest industry trade group representing securities firms, banks, and asset management companies – may not be forecasting negative rates, it was explicit enough in its intro to make it clear that NIRP remains a distinct possibility for the US:
The potential impact of a negative interest rate (NIR) policy in the US continues to be discussed by market participants. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome H. Powell has previously stated that the US does not see negative interest rates as an appropriate policy response to economic disruption caused by the pandemic. However, the uncertainty of US economic recovery and the current 0% to 0.25% monetary policy target range for the federal funds rate continues to lead market participants to consider the future possibility of an NIR policy in the US.
Then, in a moment of bizarre absurdity, next to a photo of a jenga tower that is about to collapse (think The Big Short), the paper describes how certain capital markets products may be impacted in the event of negative interest rates in the US, followed by a checklist of considerations that can be used by firms seeking to mobilize negative interest readiness programs within their institutions. The checklist is structured across the following key themes: US NIR program governance and mobilization; financial exposure analysis; contract and counterparty customer analysis; portfolio strategies and profitability; technology and operations; finance, tax and accounting; and regulatory and policy considerations.
While we have discussed the myriad negative consequences that would result from NIRP previously, the paper did recap some of the potential horror stories that it now appears may be coming to the US (because otherwise, this paper would never have been published):
Read the full paper here.
Tyler Durden
Mon, 12/21/2020 – 18:40
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