After April’s bloodbath in new home sales (and existing and pending to a lesser extent), May’s housing data deluge is about to kick off with what analysts expect to be a 3.7% MoM drop in existing home sales. In fact – and rather surprisingly – home sales ‘only’ fell 3.4% MoM in May (April data was revised slightly lower)…

Source: Bloomberg

This is the 4th straight monthly decline (and 5th drop in the last 6 months) in existing home sales and the lowest SAAR since June 2020…

Source: Bloomberg

“Further sales declines should be expected in the upcoming months given housing affordability challenges from the sharp rise in mortgage rates this year,” Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist, said in a statement.

“Nonetheless, homes priced appropriately are selling quickly and inventory levels still need to rise substantially – almost doubling – to cool home price appreciation and provide more options for home buyers.”

The median selling price rose 14.8% from a year earlier, to a record $407,600.

First-time buyers accounted for 27% of US sales last month, down from 31% a year ago, and underscoring the affordability challenges that have been pricing many Americans out of the market.

And bear in mind, this is May’s data – before mortgage rates really started to accelerate higher.

Source: Bloomberg

If sales catch-down to that, prepare for the political pressure to pile up.